Disney-Area Airbnb Math: What 50 Storey Lake Hosts Actually Clear

The brochure says $90,000 per year. The Facebook group says it pays for itself. The property manager quote sheet lists 70% occupancy and $350 per night average.

None of those numbers are wrong exactly. They are just not what the median Storey Lake host actually nets after every expense category has been paid.

I pulled data from AirDNA, AirROI, and Airbtics for the Osceola County STR market, cross-referenced with actual closing costs, current HOA fee disclosures, and the property management fee structures used by the five largest managers operating in these communities. Then I built a real P&L. Here is what the math looks like.

The Disney STR communities — and which ones actually allow nightly rentals

Not every community in the Disney corridor permits short-term rentals. This distinction matters enormously before you make an offer.

These six communities are the core of the Disney-area STR market and all explicitly permit nightly rentals under their HOA governing documents:

• Storey Lake Resort (Kissimmee, Osceola County) — no minimum night requirement in HOA docs; Osceola County permit required. One of the most active Airbnb markets in the state.
• Solara Resort (Kissimmee) — fully STR-permitted, no personal use restrictions beyond HOA rules. Strong amenity package drives premium ADR.
• Reunion Resort (Reunion, Osceola County) — STR permitted with active club membership required ($6,000–$12,000/year depending on tier). Larger villas and higher buy-in; premium price point.
• Encore at Reunion (Kissimmee) — a subset of the Reunion master development, independently HOA-governed, fully STR-friendly. 4- to 13-bedroom inventory; most competitive management infrastructure.
• ChampionsGate (Davenport, Polk County) — Oasis Club section is fully STR-approved; the National section is zoned residential and does NOT permit nightly rentals. Confirm the sub-HOA before writing an offer.
• Windsor at Westside (Davenport) — STR-permitted throughout, professionally managed amenity center, popular with UK and Canadian investors.

Cities of Kissimmee and Davenport fall under Osceola County and Polk County jurisdiction respectively — both counties are STR-permissive. The City of Orlando is a different story entirely.

The City of Orlando restriction most buyers miss

If a property's address says 'Orlando' and you are planning to run it as an investor-owned short-term rental, read this carefully.

The City of Orlando requires owner-occupancy for short-term rentals. Specifically, you must live in the property as your primary residence — present at least 51% of the year — and you can only rent rooms, not the entire home, while you are there. Maximum four guests total, no more than 50% of bedrooms rented at once.

This eliminates the entire non-owner-occupied vacation home model inside city limits. The Disney-area communities listed above all sit outside Orlando city limits — in unincorporated Osceola County or Polk County — which is precisely why they operate legally as investor-owned STRs.

“If someone is selling you a Disney investment property with an Orlando mailing address, ask for the jurisdiction confirmation from the county property appraiser before you assume it is rentable.”

The honest occupancy and ADR bands

The brochure numbers come from peak performers — the fully decorated, professionally managed, five-star-rated 5/4 with a heated pool and a game room, run by operators who respond to inquiries in four minutes. Most investor-owned units are not that.

Realistic occupancy and ADR for a 5-bedroom pool home in the Storey Lake / ChampionsGate / Solara tier in 2025–2026:

• Occupancy: 55%–68% annually. The broader Osceola County market averages 40–45% across all unit types and operators (AirROI 2026 data). Well-managed 5-bedroom pool homes in the core communities exceed that average but rarely sustain the 70%+ figures used in promotional materials.
• ADR: $240–$385/night depending on season, size, and amenity package. A 5-bedroom in Storey Lake runs $230–$280 off-peak (late January through early March, September–October), $310–$385 during Disney peak periods (spring break, summer, Thanksgiving week, Christmas/New Year).
• RevPAR: $145–$210 effectively (ADR × occupancy, averaged annually).

Bloomberg documented the occupancy pressure directly in 2024 — Kissimmee summer RevPAR dropped roughly a third from its 2022 peak as new supply came online. The pipeline of new units has been significant: AirROI data shows Osceola County STR supply expanded over 50% while revenue climbed only modestly. More beds competing for the same Disney visitor base means more operator discipline required to hold occupancy.

The full P&L: 5/4 pool home at $485,000

Here is a real-world financial model for a 5-bedroom, 4-bathroom pool home in Storey Lake or ChampionsGate, purchased at $485,000 with $35,000 in furnishing and setup costs. Down payment assumed at 20% ($97,000); financing the remaining $388,000 at 7.25% on a 30-year fixed. This is a reasonably current rate for an investment property in 2025–2026.

Gross revenue

1. Annual nights available: 365
2. Target occupancy: 62% = 226 nights booked
3. Blended ADR: $295
4. Gross annual revenue: $66,670

Revenue deductions (before you see the money)

• Airbnb / Vrbo platform fees: 3% host fee on Airbnb, 5% on Vrbo — blended 3.5% across split listings. Cost: ~$2,335/year.
• Cleaning fees: typically $200–$275 per turn for a 5/4 home. At 226 turns: $50,800–$62,150 gross collected from guests. Cleaning revenue often nearly washes — guests pay it, you pay the cleaner. Assume net zero or slight positive. Do not count cleaning as 'revenue' in your cash flow model.
• Short-term rental income to model net of cleaning: ~$55,000–$58,000 effective net revenue before operating expenses.

Operating expenses

• Property management — full-service: 20%–28% of gross rental revenue (not including cleaning). At 25%: ~$13,750/year. Co-host (calendar management + guest communication only): 10%–15%, so ~$6,900–$8,250. Self-managing: $0 but factor 8–12 hours/month in owner time.
• STR insurance: Standard landlord insurance ($2,000–$2,500/year in Florida) does not cover vacation rental commercial activity. Purpose-built STR policies run $3,500–$5,500/year for a 5-bedroom pool home. Florida statute requires minimum $1,000,000 liability for STR operators. Budget $4,500/year.
• Florida property tax: Osceola County effective rate approximately 1.1–1.3% of assessed value. At $485,000 purchase price (assessed at ~100% in year one): $5,335–$6,305/year. No homestead exemption available on investment property.
• HOA fees: Storey Lake runs $400–$500/month; ChampionsGate Oasis section $350–$500/month; Reunion and Encore $600–$1,200+/month (club membership adds to base HOA). Budget $5,400–$7,200/year for Storey Lake tier; $8,000–$15,000+/year for Reunion/Encore tier.
• Utilities (pool heat, electric, cable/internet, water/sewer): $500–$750/month. The heated pool is a guest expectation and a real cost — $150–$200/month just for pool heat. Budget $7,200/year.
• Supplies and restocking (linens, toiletries, cookware, minor repairs): $2,500–$4,000/year on a property seeing 200+ turns.
• Mortgage debt service (P&I): $388,000 at 7.25% = $2,648/month = $31,776/year.

The annual P&L summary

• Effective net rental revenue: $56,000
• Platform fees: -$2,335
• Property management (full-service 25%): -$13,750
• STR insurance: -$4,500
• Property tax: -$5,800
• HOA (Storey Lake tier): -$6,000
• Utilities: -$7,200
• Supplies and restocking: -$3,200
• Mortgage P&I: -$31,776
• Net annual cash flow: -$18,561 (negative)

That is a negative cash flow position before any vacancy surprises, one plumbing issue, or a bad review quarter that drops occupancy below 55%.

Now run it with a co-host at 12% instead of full-service management, and occupancy at the high end of the realistic band:

• Effective net rental revenue (68% occupancy, $305 ADR): $63,000
• Platform fees: -$2,205
• Co-host management (12%): -$7,560
• STR insurance: -$4,500
• Property tax: -$5,800
• HOA: -$6,000
• Utilities: -$7,200
• Supplies: -$3,200
• Mortgage P&I: -$31,776
• Net annual cash flow: -$5,241

Still negative, but in the range where appreciation and depreciation benefits make the investment case. Run it with a co-host, strong occupancy, and a below-average HOA community (ChampionsGate at $350/month), and you can get within $0–$4,000 of breakeven cash flow.

“The typical Disney-area STR investor is not cash-flowing today. They are buying appreciation, depreciation deduction, and optional personal use — and hoping the math tightens as the mortgage amortizes.”

What the depreciation deduction actually changes

The IRS lets you depreciate the building portion of an investment property over 27.5 years. On a $485,000 purchase with roughly $380,000 allocated to structure (versus $105,000 land), that is $13,818 per year in depreciation deduction — a non-cash expense that reduces your taxable rental income.

With a cost segregation study (standard for properties above $400K in STR use), you can accelerate a significant portion of that depreciation into years 1–5 through bonus depreciation on furniture, appliances, fixtures, and land improvements. In year one, a cost seg on a $485,000 property might front-load $45,000–$65,000 in accelerated depreciation — creating a paper loss that offsets other income if you qualify as a real estate professional under IRS rules.

This is a real return mechanism. But it is a tax play, not a cash flow play. Do not confuse them. If you need the property to generate cash, the depreciation deduction does not fix that. If you have a high income you are trying to offset, the deduction can be significant — but get a CPA who handles STR investors before counting on it.

Property management economics: co-host vs. full-service vs. self-managing

This decision is the biggest controllable variable in the P&L.

Full-service management (20%–28% of gross)

The manager handles listings, pricing, guest communication, check-in/out, cleaning coordination, maintenance calls, and owner reporting. You are genuinely passive. Cost on $55,000 gross: $11,000–$15,400/year. The good full-service managers in the Osceola corridor know the market, run dynamic pricing software, and will outperform a self-managed listing on occupancy. The bad ones churn guests through a neglected property and collect their percentage regardless.

Co-host model (10%–15% of gross)

The co-host handles calendar, pricing, guest messaging, and check-in coordination. You handle your own cleaning vendor relationship, restocking, and maintenance calls. Cost on $55,000 gross: $5,500–$8,250/year. This saves $5,000–$7,000 versus full-service but requires active owner involvement — plan on 3–5 hours per month minimum.

Self-managing

No management fee, but full operational burden. Works well for owners within driving distance of Osceola County or for those willing to learn and operate Hospitable / Guesty-style automation tools. If you are out of state, self-managing a 5-bedroom vacation rental operating 200+ nights/year is a second job, not a passive investment.

The 2024–2026 market shift: more supply, occupancy pressure

The Osceola County STR market in 2022 was undersupplied relative to demand. Disney reopened fully, international travel returned, and occupancy ran 65%+ routinely for well-managed units. That environment is gone.

From 2022 to 2025, new resort community construction brought a significant supply increase to the corridor — primarily Storey Lake phase additions, Solara, and ChampionsGate expansion. AirROI data shows supply in Osceola County expanding over 50% in this period while nightly rates softened. Bloomberg's 2024 analysis of the Kissimmee market showed summer RevPAR down roughly a third from peak.

What this means practically: the investor who bought in 2019–2021 at lower basis with a lower mortgage rate is in a different position than the investor buying today at $485,000 at 7.25%. The older investor at 4.5% on $380,000 has $1,900/month in P&I versus the 2025 buyer's $2,648. That $750/month difference ($9,000/year) is often the gap between marginal positive and marginal negative cash flow.

This does not make the investment wrong. It makes underwriting rigorously with today's numbers — not 2021 comps — essential.

What kind of buyer this investment actually suits

The Disney STR investment is not a cash flow vehicle for most buyers at today's prices and rates. It is an appreciation play with ancillary benefits. Specifically, it suits:

• High-income professionals seeking depreciation offset, who can absorb $0–$10,000/year in negative cash flow in exchange for a $45,000+ first-year depreciation deduction (with cost seg) that offsets W-2 or business income — if they qualify as a real estate professional.
• 1031 exchange investors rolling out of a property with large embedded gain and looking for a like-kind replacement that qualifies as investment property under IRS rules. Disney-area STR communities have long been a popular 1031 destination precisely because they hold value and generate rental income.
• Buyers who genuinely want personal use — 4–6 weeks per year at Disney — and are willing to accept zero or negative net cash flow as the 'cost of the vacation home,' with appreciation expected to recover equity over a 7–10 year hold.
• Buyers with enough reserves to sustain a down market period — 18–24 months of operating losses — without being forced to sell at a bad time.

If you are expecting $800–$1,200/month in positive cash flow from a Disney STR in 2025–2026 at current prices and rates, the math does not support that expectation in the median scenario. Outlier performers exist — they are just not the median.

Run your specific numbers before you make an offer

Every community, every price point, and every management approach produces a different P&L. The Storey Lake 5/4 I modeled above at $485K is a real scenario, not a worst case. Run your target property through the STR Analyzer with the Disney preset — it uses the same expense categories above, lets you toggle management model, occupancy assumption, and HOA tier, and shows you breakeven occupancy before you are committed to anything.

The analyzer also stress-tests the scenario: what happens if occupancy drops to 48% for 12 months? What if the HOA raises fees $200/month? What if you need to replace the HVAC in year two? These are real questions that separate deals that survive the ownership period from ones that force distressed sales.

• STR Analyzer with Disney / Tampa / St. Pete presets: /investors/tools/str-analyzer
• Deal Review — send me the specific address and I will check it against active comps, current management quotes, and the actual HOA disclosure: /investors/tools/deal-review
• Disney-area STR communities overview (Storey Lake, ChampionsGate, Reunion, Encore, Solara, Windsor): /str-communities
• Friday Flip Sheet — investor market updates and deal flow: /investors

If the numbers work after a rigorous stress test, Disney-area STRs can be excellent long-term holds — especially at entry points below $400K where the mortgage burden is lower. If the only way the deal works is with peak-performance assumptions, that is useful information before you wire the down payment.